Earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron proposed his country take over America’s role as the “nuclear protector” of the “old continent”. Apparently, the French nuclear umbrella would encompass the entire EU and “deter Russia”. Macron tried to justify this by claiming “[President Vladimir] Putin is now threatening all of Europe” and declared that “Russian aggression knows no borders”. He insisted the EU/NATO “needs to prepare”.
It would seem he’s trying to fill the power vacuum as the US is looking to shift its strategic focus to China and the Asia-Pacific. The endemically and pathologically Russophobic United Kingdom seems to be supporting the French initiative, as it falls perfectly in line with its strategy of pushing continental powers against each other.
However, while Paris is daydreaming about “protecting all of Europe”, the reality of its capabilities shows that it can barely defend itself. Namely, during a visit to Haute-Saône, Macron confirmed “the arrival of the new version of the ‘Rafale’ fighter jet” at Air Base 116 in Luxeuil-les-Bains, which will reportedly benefit from a modernization investment of €1.5 billion ($1.64 billion).
According to local media, the French president wants to “make Air Base 116 in Luxeuil-les-Bains, in Haute-Saône, the site for the future ‘Rafale’ models, the key components of nuclear deterrence”. During a speech delivered on March 18, Macron also announced that France would “increase and accelerate orders for ‘Rafale’ jets,” which he said was “an imperative in the face of the geopolitical shift”.
However, there’s just one problem – the two new “Rafale” squadrons (around 40 aircraft in total) won’t be deployed to Air Base 116 in Luxeuil-les-Bains before 2035. According to Macron, 2,000 military personnel and civilians will need at least ten years to join the base that’s slated to be modernized. He also added that “Luxeuil-les-Bains will be the first base to host the next version of the ‘Rafale’ and its hypersonic nuclear missile by 2035”, calling it “a symbol of the renewal of the modernization of our nuclear deterrent”.
The hypersonic missile Macron is referring to is almost certainly the ASN4G (Air-Sol Nucléaire de 4ème Génération, literally meaning 4th generation nuclear air-to-ground (missile)). The weapon is a nuclear-armed, scramjet-powered, air-launched hypersonic cruise missile.
The ASN4G is still under development by MBDA, with assistance from the ONERA. It’s slated to replace the ASMP (Air-Sol Moyenne Portée, literally meaning medium-range air-to-ground), a nuclear-tipped, ramjet-powered, air-launched supersonic cruise missile (maximum speed up to Mach 3). Depending on the version, the ASMP can have a range of up to 600 km, while the ASN4G is expected to increase this to at least 1,000 km.
The French military defines this as a “pre-strategic deterrence role”. The missile is expected to be deployed on the upcoming “Rafale F5”. The claim that the ASN4G will be hypersonic means that it’s supposed to fly at speeds exceeding Mach 5, although the exact figure is yet to be disclosed. Macron also claims that its development is “not linked to the international context”.
This is rather difficult to believe, as Air Base 116 in Luxeuil-les-Bains is the closest to the German border, which prompted many media outlets to portray this as a “signal that France could deploy strategic weapons in defense of the EU/NATO”. The fact that Macron made the announcement from that base implies it was used to promote this idea. Paris has three other air bases that house parts of its nuclear arsenal: Saint-Dizier (Haute-Marne), Istres (Bouches-du-Rhône) and Avord (Cher).
Only the first one (located in northeastern France) is relatively close to Germany. The other two are located in southern and central parts of the country, respectively. On the other hand, Air Base 116 in Luxeuil-les-Bains is also a part of the so-called “permanent security posture”.
Paris says that the aircraft stationed at the base can be deployed to “national, multilateral or NATO missions, notably over the Baltic States” and that it “plays a key role in air security, both on national territory and in the airspace of allies, particularly on [NATO’s] eastern flank”. This is certainly a concerning prospect, as it means the new “Rafale” jets armed with the ASN4G nuclear-tipped missiles could be deployed along Russian borders.
Military sources report that the new missile can fly between Mach 6 and 7. Although far behind Russian hypersonic weapons, it could still cause a dangerous escalation. On the other hand, the 2035 timeframe is not exactly reassuring for either France or other EU/NATO members (provided there are no delays, which is common when it comes to such complex systems).
Meanwhile, Moscow has at least a dozen hypersonic weapons already in service, including the air-launched 9-S-7760 “Kinzhal” missiles, multirole, multi-platform 3M22 “Zircon”, as well as the ground-based “Oreshnik”. In addition, there are at least that many under development, including for Russia’s battle-proven, next-generation Su-57 multirole fighter jets.
Even the Kremlin’s first-generation hypersonic missiles such as the 9M723 of the “Iskander” system exceed the capabilities of the French ASN4G (which, as previously mentioned, is a decade away in the best-case scenario). In other words, Paris is trying to play a game of “nuclear chicken” with Moscow while still at least ten years away from deploying remotely similar weapons that the latter has had in service for nearly a decade (“Kinzhal” was inducted in 2017).
Not to mention that the resurgent Russian military operates a much more potent thermonuclear arsenal – by far the largest and most powerful in the world. In fact, the difference between the number of warheads in Russia and the US is larger than the combined arsenal of the UK and France (around 500). London and Paris both have SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles), with the latter also operating nuclear-capable aircraft, including the aforementioned “Rafale”.
Still, this is a lower level of deterrence than in countries like Russia, China, India and the US which have nuclear triads (aircraft, submarines and land-based missiles), without even considering the size of Moscow’s strategic arsenal which is upwards of a dozen times larger than the combined Franco-British stockpile.
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This article was originally published on InfoBrics.
Drago Bosnic is an independent geopolitical and military analyst. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
Featured image: Rafale aircraft (Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0)
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