While Iran is part of the US-China geopolitical competition, Russia has been relegated to a secondary position.
On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a shocking attack on Iran. After overcoming the chaos of the first day, Iran responded harshly. In the final days of the war between the two sides, the US carried out a limited bombardment of Iran’s nuclear facilities, and Iran responded with a limited retaliation. The 12-day war, in which Israel was hit with such intensity for the first time and which demonstrated Iran’s weakness in defense and strength in offense, ended with a ceasefire on June 24, 2025. While lasting peace is not easy, the real question is: Why is Iran a target? Is it really because of Iran’s desire to acquire nuclear weapons?
Although Iran’s nuclear program dates back to the 1950s, to the Shah’s era, the real progress came after the Iranian Islamic revolution. Having survived the Iraq war, recorded the active hostility of the US towards the regime and targeted Israel, Iran has given special importance to nuclear development as well as its defense industry. In addition to research reactors that exemplify the peaceful use of nuclear power, the country’s first nuclear power plant, Bushehr, became operational in 2011 after a difficult process. This plant was built by Russia’s state atomic company ROSATOM, while its owner is the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. It is useful to open a parenthesis here because a similarity is being drawn between Bushehr and the Akkuyu nuclear power plant built in Türkiye, which is wrong.
Akkuyu has an unprecedented feature in the history of nuclear power plants, such as being owned by another country on the territory of one country. In this sense, there is nothing for Türkiye to boast about because the ownership of the plant has been given to another country, namely Russia, with the Intergovernmental Agreement. Moreover, there is a purchase guarantee for half of the electricity to be produced here at a price three times higher than the current market price (12.35 dollars/cents kWh). If there was a technology transfer, that is, if the operation and ownership of the power plant were to pass to the Turkish side over time, these details would still not be very important, but as it is said, the power plant is under Russian control from fuel supply to waste management. Moreover, Rosatom is building a power plant of the same type as Akkuyu (VVER-1200) in Egypt, and as it should be, the owner of this power plant will be the Egyptian Atomic Energy Authority. In this sense, when Akkuyu is completed, it will be the first nuclear power plant in Türkiye but not owned by Türkiye. In short, there is not much similarity between Bushehr and Akkuyu, other than the same company building the power plant.
The most important issue here is that the Iranians have achieved success in operating a nuclear power plant over time, that is, they have made technological progress. However, owning a nuclear power plant is not a prerequisite for producing nuclear weapons. Producing nuclear weapons is a different process and has two methods. The first is uranium enrichment, and the second is producing bombs with the plutonium method. Iran has developed itself in both of these methods. The heavy water reactor in Arak is the second; Nuclear facilities such as Isfahan, Nanetz and Fordow are examples of the first. In order to produce a nuclear bomb, uranium needs to be enriched to over 90%. Just last year, it was known that Iran had reached 60% and could produce a bomb in a few weeks if it wanted to. Whether Iran currently has nuclear weapons is a mystery, but as it has been said, Iran has already reached this capacity with decades of effort. Does it make sense to stop a country that does not have nuclear weapons but has acquired the ‘know-how’ to produce them through war? Iran is a large country and can already store the uranium it enriches in its vast territories. Indeed, after intense Israeli attacks and US bombardment, a US Defense Intelligence Agency report stated that Iran’s nuclear capacity could not be destroyed. As has been said, this is already impossible. It is impossible for Israel and the US, which are afraid of Iran becoming a nuclear state but are themselves a nuclear power, not to know this. So why did they start this war? The short answer: Geopolitics!
Iran, once an ally of the US, after the revolution is a country hostile to the existence of Israel, the regional extension of the Anglo-Saxons. Having struggled with the powers against it for decades and having proxy forces such as Hamas, Hezbollah and recently the Houthis, Iran is a regional power outside of US hegemony. However, things have not gone well for Iran in the last two years. While Hamas was almost broken after October 7, 2023, Hezbollah suffered a significant blow and most importantly, a regime change occurred in Syria, which was hostile to Israel and friendly to Iran, at the end of last year. As Iran’s regional influence was declining, it was being talked about that Iran would be next. Indeed, it was known that Trump, who came to office in the US, took a tough stance against Iran, unlike his opponents.
The current US administration accepts that the unipolar order is over and wants to focus on China in the world system that is taking on a multipolar structure. It is natural for them to see China as their biggest rival because when evaluated together with technological, economic and political parameters, the only power that can compete with the US on a global scale is China and moreover, time is flowing in China’s favor. Instead of Western dominance that has lasted for centuries, the Asia-Pacific Age is beginning. China’s Belt and Road Initiative is gradually branching out. It seems essential for the US to renew its policy under these conditions. Indeed, although it is not feasible, the IMEC (India-Middle East Economic Corridor) project was put forward for this reason. While the US under the Trump administration was escalating its trade wars against China on the one hand, it also made its first politically sensitive move in South Asia at the beginning of May. The tension between Pakistan and India suddenly turned into a hot conflict. It was no secret that the US wanted to strengthen India against China and that this country was also the most important customer of the Russian defense industry. However, it was noteworthy that the tension came through Pakistan. Pakistan is extremely important as a country that is seen as a partner for China and through which the economic corridor extending to the Gwadar port passes. Indeed, the planes produced jointly with China have served their purpose well in this conflict. Russia, on the other hand, has been silent.
Nevertheless, Trump’s US has another foreign policy goal: to end the Ukraine-Russia war and to make Russia, which has been getting closer to China in recent years, a partner or at least to pull it to a neutral position! In fact, Trump has worked intensively on the Ukraine issue and has achieved partial results. As the intensity of the war decreased, the parties started direct peace negotiations two years later. On the other hand, Trump’s US is also a preferable country for Russia compared to the previous administration. Here it is useful to briefly touch on Russia’s stance. Russia is moving towards its goals in Ukraine, but the war of attrition waged against it seems to have achieved its goal. Focusing on Ukraine, which is absorbing Russia’s power, ties Moscow’s hands in other geographies. Indeed, while there was a regime change in Syria, Russia also remained silent about the fall of its ally. Moreover, Russia, which was negotiating with the new administration, which it had seen as an enemy and terrorist until recently, for its military bases and was focused on protecting its gains in Ukraine, has lost its credibility.
Today, Russia is stuck under the influence of sanctions. The possibility of the US expanding sanctions will bring additional difficulties to the Russian economy, which has resisted war for three years but is behind in technology. Moreover, there are interest groups in Moscow that want to return to the old good days, that is, if the sanctions are eased, to resume conventional energy trade (selling oil and gas in dollars at market prices). Continuing this relationship established with the West through raw material trade is important for Russia, which operates with an oligarchic state capitalist model. Putin is already winking at this by not changing his economic model and staff. This situation can be presented as a new balance between the US and China, but in practice it does not go further than reaching an agreement with Trump’s US as a secondary actor. Indeed, Moscow is trying to turn the Iranian crisis into an opportunity, just like it did in Syria, in Ukraine. Russia, a country that hopes to benefit from working with Trump and has now lost its big state reflex, seems far from its former power with this opportunistic and narrowly defined policy of interest. On the first day of the war, instead of condemning the aggressor, Moscow made an ineffective statement and is trying to take a silent position in the middle between Israel and Iran. Russia’s special and extensive relations with Israel also constitute an important dimension in this.
On the other hand, contrary to Russia’s position, China did not hesitate to put its weight on Iran’s side. The statements were in favor of Iran, but more importantly than the words, Beijing made itself felt on the ground. There are understandable reasons for China’s support for Iran: Seeing that the US will confront it in East Asia, especially over Taiwan, the Chinese administration has drawn the wall to its ally Iran in West Asia. It should be noted that Iran has committed $400 billion in strategic investments to this country and that Iran has sold 1.5 million barrels of its oil to China in yuan. But what is even more critical is that Iran is indispensable to China within the Belt and Road framework. The China-Pakistan-Iran route and the China-Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway, which were connected just a month ago, serve an important function for Chinese goods. In fact, when we consider the cargo planes that took off from China during the heated moments of the war to carry supplies to Iran, the ships belonging to the Chinese navy that crossed the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf, and other technical support; it is seen that China is trying to balance the US-Israel duo in Iran. Although China’s interest is not on the scale of the US’s support for Israel, it is also noteworthy in terms of being the first support provided in a distant geography.
After all this, if we return to our initial question; it can be said that the nuclear issue is an excuse and by entering into an intense rivalry with China, the US is targeting Iran, China’s regional partner, for geopolitical reasons. The security of its own ally Israel, but more so, the aim to disturb its rival, can be sensed in this. The short expression of this aim is that the target is regime change or the transformation of Iran. Either the Iranian administration will come to an agreement with the US and evolve to a different point, or the regime will be shaken by the attacks and it will be expected to fall with internal turmoil. However, the realization of these goals is not easy in today’s international system where the balance of power is relatively equal, considering China-Iran relations. Iran has the capacity and support to resist.
The subject is also full of lessons for Türkiye. While Israeli aggression is increasing in the region, the stability of neighboring countries is important for Ankara. While Türkiye’s relations with Russia are important to balance the US, a Russia that cooperates with the US is meaningless to Türkiye. Türkiye has to face the fact that the world is essentially dragged into a competition between the US and China in its search for balance. Most importantly, the disintegration scenario of Iran, which would be disastrous for the entire region, would be negative for the Turkish nation and the people of Turkish origin, who constitute a very significant part of the Iranian population, in an environment where the appetite of the PKK and its extension terrorist groups is whetted.
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