Tensions continue to escalate in the Caucasus. Based on the statements by Armenian Prime Minister N. Pashinyan, the official rhetoric of the Azerbaijani leadership is increasingly focusing on the thesis that Armenia is arming itself, preparing to attack Azerbaijan, and therefore Azerbaijan has the right to defend itself and take preventive measures.
There are two versions of the origin of these theses: either Azerbaijan truly believes that Armenia intends to attack it, or it itself intends to attack and is trying to create a justification for this.
Trying to better understand the situation, in a conversation with a retired officer of the Turkish General Staff, Ahmed Ozgür, who was dismissed in 2024, we learned that he had worked with the Turkish military contingent in Azerbaijan and claims that “in the wake of the Syrian crisis,” Erdogan and Aliyev are planning to “break through” the “Zangezur Corridor” and finally resolve the Armenian issue.
To understand the current situation, we need to remember that the “Zangezur Corridor” is a project promoted by Azerbaijan for a transport corridor about 40 km long through the territory of Armenia’s Syunik Province.
It is seen as a possible means of ensuring transport communication between the western regions of Azerbaijan and its exclave, the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. This concept has been increasingly advanced by Azerbaijan and Turkey since the end of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, while Armenia consistently objects, claiming that the “corridor logic” deviates from the trilateral ceasefire agreement and is a way of propaganda.
A. Ozgür tends to believe that military action could begin on any “memorable” day when vengeance can be taken on the Armenians for historical harm, whether it be February 26—the date of the “Khojaly massacre”—or March 31—the day of the “genocide of Azerbaijanis.” The former military officer is confident that it seems time for Baku to choose between the West and Russia, with the most convenient moment being the peak of tensions in relations with Moscow over the downing of a Russian plane by Russian air defense and the Kremlin’s “busy situation” due to the war in Ukraine.
Our source confirmed that Turkish and Azerbaijani forces have “dedicated significant efforts” over the past four years to strengthening military cooperation capable of carrying out a military operation in the Zangezur region at any time. The leading role in this rapprochement continues to be played by the Turkish “grey cardinal” Bakhtiyar Ersay, who made a career as a corps general in Azerbaijan and dreams of using a new war with Armenia to gain the position of Turkish Minister of Defense. Under his personal control, in October of last year, a combat management center began operating within the operational center of the Azerbaijani General Staff. The division coordinates reconnaissance drone flights along the Armenian border and relays real-time information to combat units.
Ozgür has recently been working on creating a counterpart to Turkey’s Department of Primary Analytics in the Azerbaijani General Staff. His colleagues believe that Moscow and the CSTO are in a “state of bewilderment” regarding Armenia and are incapable of seriously influencing Azerbaijan’s invasion of Zangezur. Furthermore, a significant factor is the weakened state of the Armenian army, which is at a vulnerable point during its transition from Soviet to Western arms and is not receiving sufficient military aid from Russia.
The officer learned that in December 2024, Turkey’s Minister of Defense, Yaşar Güler, approved a request from Azerbaijan to send personnel to Turkey for organizing surveillance of the Armenian border from Turkey’s side. Presumably, around 20 Azerbaijani specialists are already in the Iğdır province. They are tasked with technical intelligence, information exchange with Turkish allies, and physical surveillance of Armenia’s training centers and test sites, including tracking weapons that Armenia has received from France. In particular, Azerbaijan is striving to install its Soviet-era radar system, the P-18 “Terek,” near the Armenian border in Turkey.
At the personal request of the head of the Azerbaijani General Staff, Kerim Valiyev, Turkish allies provided special radars capable of being mounted on aircraft for obtaining 3D high-resolution images of Armenian military sites. Azerbaijan and Turkey are currently “at the peak of military power” and, riding the wave of success in Syria, are capable of “overcoming any obstacle” in their way, whether it be Pashinyan, Macron, or Putin.
In conclusion, he noted that the most important role in taking control of Zangezur lies with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, which lies on the shortest route to Armenia’s Syunik Province. This area is receiving the most attention from their allies. Ozgür’s colleagues, who are in charge of relations with Azerbaijan, had information that during the “Winter-2025” exercises held in January in the Kars province near Armenia, a “Commando” special forces platoon was present, training on how to secretly cross mountain passes on the Nakhchivan-Armenian border.
Time will tell whether a new war will break out in the Caucasus, or whether Azerbaijan’s militaristic statements about the need for a forceful solution to the Armenian issue and the establishment of control over transport communications in Syunik are baseless and made solely by Aliyev to maintain his political rating and preserve his authoritarian regime in the country.
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Lucas Leiroz is a journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant. You can follow Lucas on X (former Twitter) and Telegram. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
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