In the early morning of June 13, Israel began a direct war with Iran, following decades of shadow warfare that included targeted assassinations, cyberattacks, and indirect confrontations from Damascus to the Red Sea.
The unwritten rule had been to escalate without letting the situation spiral out of control. However, with a surprise attack by Israeli intelligence services and heavy bombardments, followed by an Iranian retaliation against military targets and strategic infrastructure in Israel, that line has now been crossed.
Objective of this War
The situation is escalating rapidly and shows signs of a much larger conflict than merely so-called nuclear dismantlement. Netanyahu has openly stated that he aims for regime change in Iran.
The chances of that happening are slim. On the one hand, there is considerable discontent in Iran. Many young people struggle with the rigid traditional lifestyle and clerical patronage. Due to U.S. economic sanctions, the economy is in very poor shape, there is widespread poverty, and one in four young people is unemployed. The political system is theocratic and lacks transparency. Iranians are fed up with widespread corruption and harsh repression.
On the other hand, the government can still rely on the support of a significant, conservative, and devout portion of the rural population, and partly also in urban areas. Moreover, bombardments by a foreign aggressor only serve to close ranks.
A regime change may be aiming too high, but a more modest goal is the neutralization of Iran as a regional sub-power. The long-term goal of the U.S. in the Middle East is to fragment countries into smaller, weaker entities that can no longer operate independently and, ideally, are governed by pro-American forces.
This fits into the broader attempt of the “collective West” to prevent the rise of defiant countries or alternative power blocs that could threaten five centuries of global dominance. This motivation stems from the very nature of global capitalism and its drive for survival through imperialism.
Within the anti-hegemonic bloc—which includes Russia, China, and North Korea—Iran, without nuclear weapons, is the weak link. In the Middle East, the goal is to create a region where no country is larger or more powerful than Israel, thereby securing its regional dominance. To achieve that goal, Israel is expected to do the dirty work.
To that end, it is armed by the U.S. and its Western allies with the most lethal and advanced weapons and can also count on military and logistical support from Washington.
Strategy
According to analysts, Israel is now applying in Iran the same strategy it used earlier in Lebanon: targeted assassinations of military leaders, destruction of communication systems, and precision bombings on preselected targets. The strategy proved effective in Lebanon.
In addition, the Zionist state is trying to disrupt the country’s oil supply. Tel Aviv hinted on Sunday that it had hit fuel depots in recent attacks in Iran, which serve both civilian and military supply lines. The aim is not yet to hinder oil exports—especially toward China—but to disrupt Iran’s domestic fuel distribution.
After the attacks on military and nuclear installations, the strikes on energy facilities mark a new phase with the same goal: disabling defence infrastructure and undermining the government and society.
A possible scenario is similar to what happened in Iraq and Syria. In both countries, central authority and the military were severely weakened, and the territory was de facto partitioned into areas over which the government had little or no control. In both cases, this occurred through external military aggression and by setting population groups against each other.
They’ll likely attempt something similar in Iran. As in Iraq and Syria, the Kurds constitute a significant minority group there.
Role of the U.S.
According to investigative journalist Ben Norton, the Israeli attack on Iran is not a unilateral action, but the result of a coordinated operation between Israel and the United States, approved and directed by the Trump administration.
While the U.S. was publicly engaged in so-called peace negotiations for a new nuclear agreement with Iran, Trump was secretly assisting Israel in preparing the attack. He supplied weapons, such as 300 Hellfire missiles, granted access to U.S. intelligence, and personally approved the strike.
Trump had given Iran a 60-day “ultimatum” to accept a deal—day 61 became the moment of the attack. Trump publicly boasted about the strike, called it a “slaughter,” and said that “much more would follow.”
Officials claimed the U.S. was not involved, but leaked information and media reports, according to Norton, reveal that the United States provided crucial military and logistical support, and even intercepted Iranian missiles when Iran retaliated.
The U.S. had already done the same during previous missile attacks from Iran (in April and October 2024). At this point, it is still unclear whether the U.S. will participate directly in Israel’s attacks. Within Trump’s administration, the voices may not yet be fully in sync.
In any case, Trump has already moved a nuclear aircraft carrier from the South China Sea to the Arabian Sea to reinforce a NATO-like presence in the region alongside the USS Carl Vinson and several destroyers. In addition, dozens of tanker aircraft were flown to Europe, ready for operations over the Middle East.
Why Now?
Washington and Tel Aviv consider the moment ripe to attack Iran and attempt a decisive blow. The destruction of Iranian air defence systems by Israel a few months ago, the fall of the Assad government and the installation of a “controlled” regime there, the near knock-out of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the devastation of Gaza—these factors have significantly shifted the balance of power in the region in favour of Israel and its Western allies.
How this conflict will unfold is currently completely unclear. With its first attacks, Israel inflicted serious military damage in Iran, striking command structures and possibly delaying parts of the nuclear program.
But the initial euphoria in Israel quickly gave way to realism when Iran struck deep into Israeli territory with missiles. The destruction in Israeli cities shattered the illusion of invulnerability. Given the large number of ballistic missiles Iran possesses (around 2,000), it is likely that Iran could continue such bombardments for another three to four weeks.
It also remains to be seen whether Iran will limit itself to this or escalate further, for example by blocking the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial maritime passage for oil. That would cause oil prices to rise sharply and have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.
If Trump decides to participate in the attack on Iran, we will undoubtedly enter a new and much more dangerous phase, with consequences that are impossible to predict. The coming days will tell.
*
Click the share button below to email/forward this article. Follow us on Instagram and X and subscribe to our Telegram Channel. Feel free to repost Global Research articles with proper attribution.
Marc Vandepitte is a member of the Network of Intellectuals and Artists in Defense of Humanity and was an observer during the presidential elections in Venezuela. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
Sources
Israel’s war on Iran was made in USA: Trump supported attacks, while faking peace talks
Israel started a war with Iran, but it doesn’t know how it ends
Fuel and Fury: Middle East becomes a Middle East battlefield
Featured image source
Global Research is a reader-funded media. We do not accept any funding from corporations or governments. Help us stay afloat. Click the image below to make a one-time or recurring donation.
Counter Information publish all articles following the Creative Commons rule creative commons. If you don't want your article to appear in this blog email me and I will remove it asap.
No comments:
Post a Comment