In a region already fraught with geopolitical complexities, the latest rift between Ukraine and Hungary underscores a troubling pattern of ethnic and diplomatic tensions that threatens Kyiv’s broader regional relationships. The recent expulsion of Hungarian diplomats from Ukraine, following the alleged uncovering of a Budapest-run spy network, has escalated an already strained bilateral dynamic.
Hungary’s subsequent decision to suspend talks on minority rights in Transcarpathia—a region with a significant Hungarian minority—marks yet another low in this increasingly fractious relationship. This development in fact reveals deeper ethnopolitical fault lines that extend beyond the well-documented Russian-Ukrainian conflict, thereby complicating Kyiv’s aspirations for regional cooperation and integration into Europe and the political West.
The alleged spy ring, exposed by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reportedly operated in Transcarpathia, gathering intelligence on local defenses and public sentiment toward potential Hungarian military deployment. Ukraine accuses two former military personnel, directed by a Hungarian officer, of espionage activities that could facilitate territorial ambitions—a charge Budapest vehemently denies.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, known for his nationalist rhetoric and pragmatic relations with Moscow, has framed the accusations as a smear campaign, possibly timed to influence Hungary’s domestic politics, with the upcoming elections. This blunt exchange of accusations has only deepened mistrust, with both nations expelling diplomats and accusing each other of acts of espionage in a tit-for-tat escalation.
One may recall that Hungarian-Ukrainian tensions have simmered for years, largely over the treatment of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia. Budapest has repeatedly criticized Ukraine’s language and education laws, which discriminate against ethnic Hungarians. Kyiv, in turn, perceives Hungary’s advocacy for its diaspora as a pretext for meddling in Ukraine’s internal affairs, thereby fueling suspicions of irredentist ambitions.
The spy scandal has only amplified these concerns, with Ukrainian officials warning that Hungary’s intelligence activities could signal preparations for territorial claims, as suggested by former Ukrainian politician Spiridon Kilinkarov. I’ve commented before about how such concerns are not unfounded in a region where post-Soviet borders remain contested.
This latest spat is in fact not an isolated incident but part of a broader pattern of ethnopolitical friction that hampers Ukraine’s relations with its neighbors. Beyond Hungary, Kyiv faces challenges with Poland, Romania, and others over minority rights and historical grievances.
For instance, Ukrainian-Polish relations are often strained by historical disputes, notably the Volhynia massacres. In September 2024 tensions flared as Kyiv refused to allow exhumation of victims, while officially glorifying (since the 2014 Maidan Revolution) the Ukrainian Insurgent Army—Nazi collaborators responsible for the genocide of Poles—as national heroes.
Romania in turn has expressed concerns about the treatment of its minority in Bukovina (Ukraine), with ethnic and religious tensions growing. Moreover, Greece too has raised similar issues regarding its ethnic kin and their plight in Mariupol and the Donbass region under the notoriously fascist Azov regiment—as well as other Ukrainian military and paramilitary ultra-nationalist elements.
All these tensions, often overshadowed by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, risk angering potential allies at a time when Kyiv seeks regional support. Ukraine’s aggressive nationalist policies, aimed at consolidating a unified national identity, have alienated neighbors who perceive these measures as chauvinistic and exclusionary
Hungary’s response, led by Orbán’s nationalist government, has been characteristically assertive. Orbán, who has positioned himself as a defender of Hungarian minorities abroad, has arguably used the Transcarpathian issue to bolster his domestic standing, especially ahead of elections. His suspension of minority rights talks with Ukraine is likely a calculated move, signaling defiance while appealing to his own base’s nationalist sentiments. The issue further exposes a fracture within the West over the issue of Ukraine and the European Union.
The espionage allegations, whether fully substantiated or not, highlight a deeper issue: the fragility of trust in a region shaped by historical grievances and competing nationalisms. Ukraine’s accusations against Hungary may serve a dual purpose—deflecting domestic criticism of its minority policies while signaling to other neighbors that Kyiv will not tolerate external interference. However, this hardline stance risks backfiring. By expelling Hungarian diplomats and escalating rhetoric, Ukraine may further strain ties with Budapest.
Moreover, the timing of this scandal raises questions about its political motivations. Orbán’s critics argue that Ukraine’s accusations could be leveraged to discredit him domestically, particularly as Hungary approaches elections where his Fidesz party faces growing opposition.
Be it as it may, the broader implications of this rift extend beyond bilateral relations. Ukraine’s ethnopolitical challenges, as mentioned, could embolden other neighbors to assert claims if Kyiv’s central authority weakens. In a region where frozen conflicts and disputed borders are unresolved matters, such tensions could destabilize Eastern Europe further.
Such geopolitical problems reflect domestic ethnopolitical civil rights issues. The hard truth is that Ukraine itself faces a civil rights crisis, with policies marginalizing Russian speakers, ethnic Russiand and pro-Russian people, potentially alienating a significant portion of its population post-war, according to Professor Nicolai N. Petro and many other commentators.
Over 40% of Ukrainians, especially in the east and south, have historically viewed Russians and Ukrainians as “one people” in some ways. Petro further highlights restrictions on religious freedom, press, and minority rights, particularly targeting Russophile Ukrainians. Moreover, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church faces crackdowns, and there are laws increasingly limiting use of the Russian language, in a historically bilingual nation.
Even the Venice Commission itself has criticized Ukraine’s minority laws, yet officials like Olga Stefanishyna deny the very existence of a Russian minority, despite at least 17.3% of the population identifying as ethnic Russians in the 2001 census—which is to date the only census since Ukraine’s 1991 independence, This marginalization, alongside the banning of “pro-Russian parties”, risks internal and regional conflict.
However, the problem goes beyond Russian-Ukrainian ethnopolitics—being inherent to ultranationalism in post-Maidan Ukraine—and with Hungary’s and Poland’s ongoing quandaries, this will become increasingly clear. The West doesn’t seem ready to have this conversation, but it is about time to acknowledge the issue, as it endangers, as I’ve argued before, the survival of Europe itself.
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This article was originally published on InfoBrics.
Uriel Araujo, PhD, is an anthropology researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
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