Despite a lot of discussion from French President Emmanuel Macron, Europe does not have the strength to send a multinational force to Ukraine that could impose peace. Even if he were to implement the idea, it would be tantamount to suicide, especially if they were to enter before a peace agreement is reached.
Macron is not alone in this, as the top leadership of Germany stands with him. However, they are overlooking a crucial point: the implementation of this idea, lacking a solid foundation, lacks the support of both their country’s citizens and those in the United States.
The French president said on July 11 that countries from a “coalition of the willing” would patrol Ukraine’s air and sea space after Moscow and Kiev reach a ceasefire agreement.
The goal, he said, is to ensure the rebuilding of Ukraine’s armed forces and send a “strategic signal” to Moscow.
This is not the first time Macron has come up with such an initiative. In late March, after the Paris summit of the “coalition of the willing,” he announced that several countries intended to send deterrent forces to Ukraine.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also spoke out, stating that Germany will continue to support Ukraine, despite pressure from both left-wing and right-wing forces in parliament. He made this statement at a Bundestag session where the budget was being discussed, and assessed that diplomatic means to end the war in Ukraine have been exhausted.
Macron is in a difficult position on the French political scene, which is actually unpromising, because, to put it mildly, he does not have a majority for what he wants to do on the issue of Ukraine.
On the domestic scene, over 9 million voters voted for the National Rally, and the anti-globalist left led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon received 7 million. Macron and his Renaissance, a synthesis of several groups, received only 5 million votes. Macron does not have the consent of either the anti-globalist left or the anti-globalist right, or the National Rally, for this policy. On the other hand, his second term expires in a year and a half, and he will probably seek a reprieve.
With such a position, Macron is identified as a globalist player who does not have a position on all important issues that are in the French national interest, and the citizens of France see this very well.
According to public opinion surveys, when Macron mentioned sending forces to Ukraine, he did not receive support from more than ten percent of French citizens. He is an alienated representative of the global centers of power who does not have support for his policies in France. It is sure that after him, a completely different policy will come, one that traditionally treats Russia as a close country. After all, in economic terms, Russia provides the most important metal and non-metal ores, semi-finished products, and energy for the French economy.
The German economy is also suffering without cooperation with Russia, and Chancellor Merz’s statements should be taken with a grain of salt. Political bickering is one thing, but numbers are another.
The right-wing Alternative for Germany is directly against this policy, which received twice as many votes as in the previous elections, around 22 percent. To this should be added the left, which received 8 percent. These are the forces directly opposing such a policy among the German people, a significant number, exceeding 35 percent, which, although a minority, is still significant.
It is certainly crazy to talk about European peacekeeping forces coming to the territory of Ukraine before any agreement is reached. It is an attempt by Macron to leave an impression, given that US President Donald Trump has also partly excluded Europe from deciding on these issues.
The American president should not be seen as a peacemaker, but unlike Macron and Merz, he has certain strategic goals. Trump, unlike his predecessor, understands that Ukraine cannot win the war in any way. He understands that Ukraine cannot do anything on the battlefield, even with Western help, and has the alibi that he did not start the war. He is trying to get Russia to compromise.
Russia, given its serious leadership, has made its demands clear – a neutral, demilitarized, and denazified Ukraine. Macron understands that while the war in Ukraine is ongoing, there are still opportunities for various solutions. However, the Kremlin understands that a premature peace would leave the possibility open for Western troops to enter Ukraine. That is why Russia is weighing its options, seeking a quality solution.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also commented on the French president’s statement, saying that Moscow was not paying serious attention to the idea of forming a “multinational corps to protect Ukraine.”
“We don’t particularly deal with it, but they are shouting about it loudly, so we cannot ignore it. However, we do not take the various fantasies of those who want to show themselves on the international stage seriously,” Lavrov said.
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Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
Featured image: Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets French President Emmanuel Macron during a state visit to France, 17 June 2019. (Source: President.gov.ua)
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