What Could Hold Up Real Progress in Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks in Istanbul?

© Photo : Turkish Foreign Ministry

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators met in Istanbul on Friday, resuming peace negotiations after over three years of fighting, and securing an agreement on a large-scale prisoner exchange. The Russian side expressed readiness to continue talks. President Trump promised to call Putin and Zelensky to discuss potential next steps Monday.

“The stubbornness and stupidity of the Kiev regime and its sponsors makes me think that at least in the current stage, for as long as Zelensky remains illegally in power in Ukraine, there will be no real desire to achieve peace,” Argentinian geopolitical affairs analyst Christian Lamesa told Sputnik, commenting on the relaunch of the Istanbul peace process.

“Every time Kiev turns away from Russia’s peace proposals, Ukraine becomes smaller and smaller,” Lamesa stressed, recalling the 2022 draft deal nearly reached before being sabotaged by then-UK PM Johnson, and pointing out that the terms of that agreement were “extremely favorable for Ukraine compared to the current situation.”

Roadmap to Peace?

If nothing else, Friday’s talks constituted the creation of a “foundation of the negotiation processes” out of which a future agreement could flower, says Turkish international affairs expert Bilal Sambur.

“[Russian head negotiator Vladimir] Medinsky’s statement following the talks indicates Russia’s desire for a gradual, step-by-step diplomatic process,” Sambur said, highlighting the good will shown with the prisoner swap to establish trust, and the Russian idea that each side present concrete proposals upon which future rounds of talks could be held.

This contrasts sharply with the slapdash “quick agreement” sought by Ukraine and the US, the observer said.

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Addressing Root Causes

Russia’s intention is to get to the root causes of the conflict, “to resolve the root of the Ukrainian conflict to achieve peace, but Ukraine has focused on secondary issues,” says Argentinian observer Tadeo Casteglione.

The renewed talks “got off on the wrong foot” thanks to Ukraine’s 24-hour delay, and its failure to convene a negotiating working group until the last moment, the observer noted, highlighting Zelensky’s “improvisation" and apparent "lack of real will to negotiate.”

Nevertheless, “at least the Ukrainian delegation was able to go to Istanbul to talk,” Casteglione summed up.

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