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Wednesday, January 29, 2025

The Inevitable Decline of the Royal Navy

Global Research, January 29, 2025

In reality, the naval forces of many monarchies are referred to as “Royal Navy,” but always in conjunction with the country’s name, such as the Royal Norwegian Navy or the Royal Danish Navy. However, there is only one country in the world whose naval forces are known simply as the “Royal Navy,” without reference to the country’s name.

This is the naval force of the state officially known as the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly referred to as England by the public. The name “Royal Navy” (RN) was officially adopted during the English Restoration under King Charles II in 1660.

The Navalization of Britannia

Britain’s history spans 1500 years. In the last 500 years of this period, they became seafarers. In about half of the 500 years between the 15th and 20th centuries, they were the leaders in both hard power and soft power in the world’s oceans and seas. As an island state and a state under constant pressure from the European continent, they have taken their place at the center of modern world history with many added values they have created in world history. They became the state that carried the Catholic imperialism which Portugal and Spain started in the 15th century to global capitalist imperialism after the Netherlands. They became the representatives of imperialism in every aspect after the 17th century. They established the Royal Society (Academy of Sciences) in 1675 and brought science and reason to the Protestant faith against the dogma and conservatism of religion. They continuously grew at sea by integrating the Protestant ethic with trade and the navy. Bacon, the founder of the “Royal Society”, said the following about the importance of the seas:

“However, it is certain that the one who dominates the sea possesses great freedom and can take as much as they want from war.”

The Growth of the Royal Navy

Image: HMS Protector, a Royal Navy Antarctic patrol ship (Licensed under OGL v1.0)

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The globalization of the Royal Navy and its show of flag in distant seas began in the first half of the 18th century. During the Dynastic Wars of the Spanish and Austro-Hungarian Empires, the navy moved its area of ​​activity to the Mediterranean and the Caribbean seas.  In 1760, the Royal Navy had spread across all the world’s seas, from Canada to India, whilst the confidence level among their admirals and sailors risen. After Admiral Nelson defeated the Franco-Spanish fleet at Trafalgar off the coast of Cadiz in 1805, and after the Duke of Wellington’s decisive victory against Napoleon’s armies at Waterloo in 1815, the Pax Britannica, or British Peace, began. During the Pax Britannica period, the Royal Navy within its global deployment was present in North America, the Caribbean Sea, West Africa, the Cape of Good Hope, the southern coasts of South America, the Pacific Ocean, the East Indies, China, the Mediterranean Sea and in the waters of the Motherland. During this period, before the transition from sail to steam, the number of two/three decker, 70/120 gun ships of the line had reached a record number of 150. As an island state, they gained global hegemony thanks to their navy. In the 18th and 19th centuries, they were able to maintain an average of 100 ships of the line and nearly 400 warships of various tonnages, every year. This situation ensured that the vast majority of the male population became sailors rather than infantry or cavalry soldiers. The vast majority of these sailors did not volunteer for the ships. They were taken by force. They became sailors by force through press gangs.

The Empire on Which the Sun Never Set

The British Empire, protected by the Royal Navy, became the largest state in history in 19th century. The Empire, the owner of the industrial revolution, was described as the one on which the sun never sets. They dominated a quarter of the land and population on earth. Trade followed the wake of the warships. It had a surface area of ​​28 million km² and a population of 372 million. All of these were gained and preserved thanks to the Royal Navy. The empire was governed by a strict hierarchy, subordinate to the central administration and the governors in the occupied/colonial areas. Those who opposed this order were confronted by the firepower of the Royal Navy and the marines (in red robes) carried by warships.

The Beginning of the Stall

The first blow to the rise of the Royal Navy came from the USA. In 1890, the US economy surpassed that of Britain. The second and most important blow came from Germany which completed its unification in 1871, became so navalized with the driving force of the second industrial revolution that at the beginning of the 20th century, Kaiser Wilhelm II wanted a place in the oceans for Berlin. Britain tried to prevent it in World War I by forming an alliance with its 300-year enemy France and Russia. As a result, it prevented it from reaching the oceans at the end of the war, in 1918. However, this success was made possible by the US entrance to the the war in 1917. World War I was won as a Pyrrhic victory with the American dollar and American military aid. Thus, the era of Pax Britannia, which began in 1815, giving way to American Hegemony.Thus the decline began.

Inevitable Decline

The Second World War began again from where the First World War had left off, this time with Hitler’s Germany seeking access to the seas and claiming space for itself in the oceans, Asia, and Africa. In the 20th century, the British had underestimated the German threat for the second time. Their biggest mistake was to think that Britain’s production power, access control to raw materials and strong financial system would be enough to defend the island. However, the reality was very different. If the Japanese had not attacked Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941 and the US had not declared war on the Axis powers, Hitler might have been in a position to bring Britain to its knees. Their escape from the Nazi army at Dunkirk in the summer of 1940 was a great defeat. 40,000 British people died on the island in the Nazi air bombardment that continued from September of that year to May 1941. The island state, which was subjected to a massive naval blockade by German U-boats (submarines) until the end of 1943, almost faced famine by the end of 1942. In early 1942, they had suffered their greatest defeat in history when 80,000 British soldiers surrendered to the Japanese in Singapore. History repeated itself and, just like in World War I, the United States saved Britain. In the autumn of 1940 they were in such a difficult situation that Churchill asked US President Roosevelt for lending ocean escort ships to protect their sea lanes of communications in the Atlantic and to break the German submarine blockade. Through the ‘’Lend Lease’’ agreement, the US leased 50 warships to the Royal Navy. In return, the Americans received the right to use Britain’s bases in the Caribbean.

The New Hegemon of the Oceans, the USA

In 1945, Britain emerged victorious from the war, but the two real victors were the US and the Soviet Union. Britain was no longer a global power. They were the main actor in the establishment of NATO, the formation of a western bloc against the Soviets through assisting US in their containment Strategy within rimland geopolitics. They stood by the US in all its initiatives in both foreign and defnece policies, as well as intel sharing. They were made permanent members of the UN Security Council and became a nuclear power with US assistance. However, in return, they had given up global leadership to the US, as never to take it back. In the 19th century, Britain, as an island state, had aimed to possess a naval power greater than the combined strength of any potential rivals from the European continent. That Britain no longer existed. This vision now belonged to the US. The European continent had also been replaced by Eurasia. However, despite all these developments, the Royal Navy had no intention of giving up its spheres of influence. After NATO was established in 1949, they maintained control of all maritime areas belonging to the homeland. In 1952, NATO East Atlantic Command (Eastlant) and Channel Command (Cincchan) were established. The Royal Navy was in command of both. 

However, in other areas, its voice was not much heeded. After intense rivalries with the U.S., the Royal Navy was assigned the responsibility of the Allied Forces Mediterranean Command (AFMED) within NATO in the same year. This mission, based in Malta, a British colony since 1813 and home to the Royal Navy, continued until 1967. In 1956, when London, without U.S. approval, collaborated with France and Israel to launch an attack on Egypt in the Suez Canal region, chaos erupted. The U.S. applied significant pressure, and relations between Washington and London became strained. They were punished by the U.S. with a fuel embargo. From then on, they could no longer act independently of U.S. authority. The geopolitical law had taken effect: an island state that loses hegemony cannot regain it. 

In 1964, Britain recognized Malta’s full independence, and in 1967, the once-mighty Royal Navy handed over NATO’s naval command responsibilities in the Mediterranean to the Italians in Naples. (CINCCHAN was closed in 1994, EASTLANT in 2003. Today, MARCOM, NATO’s maritime command established in Northwood near London in 2004, remains the only high-level NATO command responsibility managed by the Royal Navy.) In 1971, the Royal Navy withdrew all permanent deployments east of the Suez, particularly in the Persian Gulf. This marked the end of Britain’s claim to be a naval power on par with the United States.

Total Naval Dependence on the U.S.

The primary reason for the Royal Navy’s shrinking since the mid-1960s was its inability to confront the Soviet Navy alone. Only the U.S. Navy could balance this power. A 1972 strategic assessment revealed that the Soviets had the capacity to launch 450 aircraft against Britain, dropping 700 tons of bombs daily or blockading the island with at least 35 submarines. By comparison, during WWII, Germany dropped an average of 35 tons of bombs daily over six years. If a NATO-Warsaw Pact war began in Europe in 1972, five major logistical convoys, comprising 192 ships escorted by 70 naval vessels, would have to cross the Atlantic to support Europe. However, Britain lacked the capability to secure the eight receiving ports and anchorage areas around its coasts. To protect the convoys between Britain and Europe, a minimum of 32 warships and 50 anti-submarine warfare (ASW) helicopters were needed. Clearing minefields posed additional challenges, requiring 135 mine sweepers, yet the Royal Navy had only 37 in 1972 (compared to just seven mine hunters today). Overall, in 1972, Britain needed 30 escort vessels, 200 ASW helicopters, 100 mine sweepers, and 21,000 additional sailors, which would have required a budget equivalent to £14 billion today. Unable to meet this gap, Britain had no choice but to rely on U.S. protection under NATO’s umbrella. Meanwhile, France, under De Gaulle’s leadership, had withdrawn from NATO’s military command to avoid U.S. dominance just six years earlier. However, Britain, fully dependent on the U.S., chose strategic complacency, reducing its defense budget annually, especially from the 1970s onward. Modernizing and adapting to post-WWII advancements in sensors and weaponry proved financially unfeasible.

The Falklands Victory

The 1982 intervention in the Falklands Islands—thousands of miles from the mainland in severe maritime and winter conditions—boosted the Royal Navy’s confidence and global reputation. However, they heavily relied on U.S. intelligence, and without it, their losses would have been much higher. Despite significant U.S. support, Britain lost seven warships, 24 helicopters, five aircraft, and 255 sailors and marines during this winter conflict.

While the victory was marketed as a public relations success, it failed to mitigate domestic economic decline, unemployment, and social unrest triggered by neoliberal Thatcherism. The Falklands victory, in reality, marked the beginning of the end, as the Navy fell victim to the harsh rules of neoliberalism.

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Type 22 Frigate HMS Broadsword alongside HMS Hermes during the Falklands War, 1982 (Licensed under OGL v1.0)

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21st-century Challenges

Post-Cold War, the Royal Navy faced not only the negative effects of neoliberalism but also a complacency born of defeating the Soviets without firing a shot. The so-called “peace dividend” led to rapid downsizing, influenced by similar U.S. reductions. Following 9/11, as the U.S. transitioned from great power competition to a global war on terror (GWOT) paradigm, Britain further reduced its navy. They consistently supported U.S. imperialist interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria as a close ally.

The 2008 Russian intervention in South Ossetia/Georgia jolted Britain out of its strategic complacency, but it was too late. When the Cold War ended, the Royal Navy had 29 submarines (20 nuclear), two aircraft carriers, 12 destroyers, 31 frigates, and two amphibious assault ships. Today, it has two aircraft carriers, nine nuclear submarines, six destroyers, and eight frigates—a reduction from 79 key combat units to just 25. By October 2024, only eight destroyers and frigates were combat-ready.

While Britain aspires to exert global influence under the “Global Britain” brand, it lacks the necessary naval strength, even to adequately protect its two recently commissioned £3 billion aircraft carriers.

They have not been able to explain to their own public the reason why they have turned to two very expensive aircraft carriers when their surface fleet is so weak. On the other hand, they cannot receive orders because they have lost their competitive conditions in the maritime defense industry market. On August 29, 2022, Britain’s newest aircraft carrier, HMS Prince of Wales, costing 3 billion pounds, returned to Portsmouth Port after breaking down on its maiden voyage. This incident was a serious loss of prestige for Britain.

Brexit and Strategic Uncertainty

Strategic Failure After BREXIT Britain’s departure from the EU on January 31, 2020 (BREXIT) was a preemptive move against the EU developing cooperation with Asia and the establishment of new alliances that would threaten the US in the 21st century when the new world order was established. 

The unification of the two Germanys was outside the traditional geopolitical paradigm for Britain. The leadership of France and Germany in the EU Security and Defense Policy was an unacceptable development for Britain and the US. As a result, the British elites preferred to separate from the EU in every way and integrate with the US, on which they were already completely dependent for defense. 

Today, we see the US and Britain as playmakers at the forefront of the struggle of the Atlantic system with both Russia and China. For this Anglo-Saxon duo, it is unacceptable for Germany and the EU countries to grow economically by using cheap Russian energy. It is unacceptable for Germany, as an island state, to get closer to Russia, which can put pressure on the island through the North Sea. 

They can achieve these goals by acting with the US/NATO. The 2008 economic crisis affected London so much that for the first time in their history, they were forced to have a force structure that would fall behind the French Navy. They did not hesitate to embark on new strategic searches within Europe in order to avoid being completely dependent on the US. 

In 2010, they signed a joint defense cooperation agreement with France for the first time since the Entente Cordiale in 1905. This agreement envisaged nuclear cooperation in the field of defense and even included articles for the joint operation of aircraft carriers by the two navies. 

Following the unlimited rapprochement between Britain and the US after their interventions in Iraq, Libya and Syria, France and Germany signed a joint defense cooperation agreement in 2019. Meanwhile, in 2021, they took part in the alliance established in Far East under the name of AUKUS by the US fait accompli. The Royal Navy, which has a force structure that has difficulty protecting its own homeland waters, was sent to support the US navy to be used against China. This situation also explains why the Royal Navy, which has an unbalanced force structure, unprecedented in world maritime history, has two new aircraft carriers at a time when it is in an extremely severe economic decline. The two aircraft carriers were built one after the other for use by the US Navy. Following BREXIT and Russia -Ukraine War the situation in Britain has become even more complicated. In 2024, this time, Britain signed a very comprehensive defense cooperation agreement with Germany, including joint weapons production and air/sea patrols.

Economic Decline

The inevitable decline of the economy, especially after the 2008 economic crisis, caused cracks in British policies. In September 2022, the Reuters Agency wrote in its economic news that Britain had its worst economic performance in 313 years. According to the news, the decline has been continuing rapidly since 2020. While the primary reason for such a situation is the Covid pandemic, it is emphasized that the fatal blow was caused by the sanctions imposed on Russia. The British economy shrank by 11% in 2020. This decline leads the economic declines experienced in all Western countries and the G7. This rate was last experienced in 1709. As of 2024, the United Kingdom has fallen to 6th place in the world rankings in terms of nominal national income, after the USA, China, Japan, Germany and India. The decline of the navy is directly proportional to the decline of the economy. In short, Britain is aware that it cannot compete with China and Russia with its current economic power. 

The Royal Navy Is Confused 

China’s military and economic growth after the 2000s; its increasing influence in Asia and Europe with the Belt and Road Initiative; Russia’s recovery after the 2000s and its military prominence; and its failure to back down from the Ukraine war that began in 2022 against the US and NATO continue to cause serious wobbles in the US and its inseparable geopolitical partner, Britain which continues to increase its hostilities with Russia in a way that exceeds its size and capabilities. 

As an island state, Britain had focused on meeting its maritime defense and security requirements with the US, but the US Navy, which it relied on greatly, has shrunk from 600 ships to 294 ships and is currently inadequate. Therefore, they also need NATO naval forces. The main reason why Britain is at the forefront of the Russia-Ukraine War, tries every way to continue the war, and fuels irreversible hostilities with Russia is the expansion and increased activities of NATO. 

For Britain, Russia should not be able to go to sea, should not pose a threat to the island, and should not contribute to the development of European economies. Without American economic power and firepower, the island cannot defend its continental and global interests, so the continuation of geopolitical hostility between Russia and the US is very important for London. They aim to protect and use American naval energy in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and Baltic Sea in a way that suits their own interests, without turning to the Western Pacific. For this reason, they prefer to maintain the US-Russia competition rather than the competition between the US and China. In this context, the continuation of the Ukraine war, weakening Russia through cheap Ukrainian blood and damaging the Russian economy through US/EU sanctions exceeding 22 thousand are among Britain’s goals. Just as Israel uses the US for its own geopolitics, Britain is also proceeding with the same logic and vision. 

However, Britain should learn from its past and, putting aside the fact that American power and navy will come to its rescue whenever it is in trouble, it should reformat the relations with the US, which it has been a hostage to since 1945. Because under today’s conditions, the US Navy has neither the force structure nor the stability and integrity in domestic politics to protect its own maritime interests, let alone British interests. The new President Trump is more determined than ever to ensure that Europeans pay their fair share (5%) for defense. This also applies to Britain. Trump, who accuses NATO countries of free riding, may soon make the same comments about Britain. It is also unlikely that Trump, who likens himself to President McKinley who brought the US to the super league in 1901, will make a new Lend Lease agreement with Britain for the modernization of the Royal Navy, whose force structure is in the worst condition in its history. Because they do not even have enough war ships for themselves. One of the reasons for the derogatory comments and declarations of both Elon Musk and Trump that humiliate Britain so much is the weak state of Britain and the Royal Navy, which have been leading the waves for centuries. 

When this situation of Britain is evaluated together with the USA, the situation that emerges is this: Great powers tend to become geopolitically lazy after winning great victories. They shrink after great victories by learning from past empires to protect their empires. However, they do not consider the developments of their rivals due to their high egos. This is the situation that the USA and England have fallen into today against China and Russia.  

The new US President Trump is trying to create a rift among NATO allies especially through Canada and Denmark, instead of drawing the UK and NATO countries to his side. This is an extremely dangerous attitude in terms of US interests. Britain will undoubtedly fall further behind during the Trump era. 

Even Britain giving up its sovereign rights on many islands in the Indian Ocean that are part of Mauritius in October 2024 is a result of the situation it has fallen into. It will not be a surprise if Argentina soon makes new claims on Las Malvinas/Falklands Islands. Because Britannia does not have the power to intervene in Britain’s South Atlantic basin. Just as the US Navy will only recover in 2045, the Royal Navy will also recover if they can stay outside of American impositions. And it does not seem very likely that they will stay outside of American impositions. Because an island state that loses its maritime might and sovereignty cannot once again be sovereign at sea and independent abroad.

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Ret Admiral Cem Gürdeniz, Writer, Geopolitical Expert, Theorist and creator of the Turkish Bluehomeland (Mavi Vatan) doctrine. He served as the Chief of Strategy Department and then the head of Plans and Policy Division in Turkish Naval Forces Headquarters. As his combat duties, he has served as the commander of Amphibious Ships Group and Mine Fleet between 2007 and 2009. He retired in 2012. He established Hamit Naci Blue Homeland Foundation in 2021. He has published numerous books on geopolitics, maritime strategy, maritime history and maritime culture. He is also a honorary member of ATASAM.  

He is a regular contributor to Global Research.

Featured image: HMS Duncan, the Type 45 guided missile destroyer (Licensed under CC BY 2.0)


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