© AP Photo / Kin Cheung
At his year-end press conference Thursday, Russia's president reiterated Moscow's readiness to negotiate an end to the conflict in Ukraine, on the condition that it is reached with "legitimate" Ukrainian representatives. That may prove a tall order for Ukraine's authorities, says veteran international affairs observer Paulo Raffone.
President Putin has indicated that Russia remains ready to discuss an end to hostilities in Ukraine, but only if it leads to a lasting peace - and not merely a ceasefire, and if Kiev is genuinely ready to make compromises.
Russia "can sign an agreement only with someone who is legitimate," Putin emphasized, recalling Volodymyr Zelensky's loss of legitimacy in Moscow's eyes after the cancellation of elections in spring 2024.
Otherwise, Russia has no preconditions for negotiations, and is ready for talks grounded in the Istanbul peace deal, sabotaged by the West in 2022, and current conditions on the battlefield, according to Putin.
"We essentially reached an agreement in Istanbul in 2022. Then for some reason Ukraine refused. Well, it's clear why - because your ally, Mr. [Boris] Johnson came [to Kiev] and said Ukraine needs to fight to the last Ukrainian. That's what they're doing now. They're running out of Ukrainians who would like to fight. I don't think there are any left. We are prepared. But the other side must be prepared as well to negotiate and to compromise," Putin said.
Time for Talks?
"The fact that Zelensky has officially stated that 'Donbass and Crimea cannot be reconquered' is a precise indication that Trump’s message that 'you must negotiate achievable results' passed through to Ukraine," Paulo Raffone, director of the CIPI Foundation, a Brussels-based geopolitical affairs think tank, told Sputnik.
"In this framework, Putin’s openness to negotiate without preconditions signals that the dialogue is ongoing," Raffone said.
"It will be difficult for Zelensky to remain in power while negotiating under such circumstances," however, the observer noted, pointing, perhaps, to the outsized political influence and power held by ultra-right radicals in Kiev - who tried to oust Zelensky in 2019 after he proposed moving forward with the Minsk Agreements on Donbass peace.
"It is very possible that in the first quarter 2025 a 'truce' may be reached with Russia so that Zelensky can call for elections. The real negotiations Russia-Ukraine can start only with the new elected president of Ukraine," Raffone emphasized, highlighting Putin's comments Thursday on the central importance of the political legitimacy of the government in Kiev for Moscow.
Beyond Ukraine
Ultimately, Raffone expects the Ukraine crisis to be just one factor weighing in "in the global negotiations that will necessarily take place as of 2025."
"Russia's cornerstone is the UN system centered on the existing Security Council, where the coordination with China will continue. It is in this framework that one can read Putin's readiness to meet with the new US president, [Donald] Trump," the observer believes.
And there are other areas which could play into Russia-US cooperation in the coming years, if the two countries play their cards right, according to Raffone, among them the issue of terrorism in the form of political assassinations - highlighted most recently by the murder of Russian Radiological, Chemical and Biological Defense Troops chief General Igor Kirillov this week.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20241219/zelensky-may-be-ousted-if-he-tries-to-negotiate-peace-with-russia-heres-why-1121215868.html
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